Forecasting Medical Supplies

The Process of Forecasting Medical Supplies requires the coordination and communication between different actors. In this wiki you can find information on how this process evolves from the start to the end. Overall the process is logically separated into five different sub-processes (actions): Call for Forecast, Perform Forecast, Finalize Forecast, Create Procurement Order, and Create Shipment.

Call for Forecast

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Figure 1. Call for Forecasting: when the Programme Manager sends emails to Countries that have signed an agreement with WHO.

Forecasting is the process/procedure of calculating the needs of a Country with respect to Medical Supplies for a given NTD, for a certain period of time. The calculation of the amount required for a Country is performed by the Country Officials (Ministries of Health) in collaboration with the WHO Medical Officers at the respective Country. Once set, the calculated amount needs to be requested from WHO and this is done in a periodic fashion. However, WHO (the NTD Department) is the actor that initiates the process. Thus, every year at a given period of time WHO sends emails to Countries in order to notify them that they can start their Forecasting process. The way this can be done in WIMEDS is depicted in a high level view in Figure 1: Call for Forecasting.

Call for Forecast that requires a set of approvals

In certain scenarios the emails that are sent by the Programme Manager can be received by Countries (Ministries of Health), only if they have first been approved by the WHO Regional Office and the WHO Country Office. WIMEDS is configurable in order to support such cases. This is depicted in Figure 1.1: Call for Forecast with and without Approvals.

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Figure 1.1. Call for Forecasting with and without Approvals: when the Programme Manager sends emails to Countries this may need to go through an Approval phase.

Perform Forecast

When Countries (Ministries of Health) receive the email that notifies them they can forecast the number of medical supplies, they need to access an application (web page) that allows them to do this. The process of sending the Forecast consists of first selecting the Disease, Medical Supply, and the Administration Units for which the Countries want to forecast. Next, the Countries need to report the available Stocks, select the Amount of the required medical supply and upload the Documents that provide details on the forecasted numbers. The forms that are used do this in WIMEDS are shown in Figure 2: Perform Forecast.

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Figure 2. Perform Forecast: 1. Select the Disease, Medical Supply and Administration Units, and 2. Report on the Stocks available at the Country level for the selected Medical Supply, Select the forecasted Amount and Upload the necessary Documents.

Select Disease, Medical Supply, and Administration Units

WIMEDS can be used for forecasting medical supplies for different diseases (programmes). Therefore, the first thing that needs to be selected is the Disease for which the Country wants to forecast (normally the Country may need to sign an agreement with the Disease first). Next, since Diseases may use different Medical Supplies like medicines and diagnostic kits, the Ministry of Health needs to select what they need. Finally, the last thing to be selected in this phase are the Administration Units (e.g., Regions, Cities, etc), for which the Country is forecasting.

Report Stocks, Insert the Amount of Forecast, and Upload necessary Documents

Once the first form is filled as explained above, the Ministry of Health needs to fill the information with respect to the stocks it has with respect to the Medical Supply selected in the previous phase. Next, the information required is the amount of the forecast and the necessary documents that explain the Plan of Implementation (a pdf file) and the Forecast details (an Excel document). Once these information are inserted the Forecast Process can be officially started and that is explained next.